I have opined before that I thought the Democrats would lose the House of Representatives in the coming election, and that they stood a chance of losing the Senate. I'm going to go out on a limb now and predict a political tsunami--the loss of both houses of Congress for the Democrats. I've been watching this election very closely, and while I think it's a done deal the Republicans will take the House, I think they will also take the Senate, and here is how I think they'll do it.
In the Colorado Senate race, Ken Buck has been up in every one of the last several polls except for one outlier from PPP where he was down one point. Buck is starting to pull away in this race. This is the first Republican pickup. They need ten to capture control of the Senate.
The second pickup for the Republicans will come from Barack Obama's home state, where Mark Kirk will defeat Alexi Gianoulias. Kirk has been up in the last two polls, possibly due to his decision to focus on the economy and what the Democrat policies have wreaked.
In Nevada, Sharon Angle will defeat Harry Reid. The mainstream media have done their best to portray Angle as a kook, but when you listen to her, she sounds very credible and rational, and she has a long resume and history of serving the people. Her TV ads countered a late Reid surge which had come on the strength of his own TV ads. Angle is up three in the latest poll.
In the state of Washington, Patty Murray will lose to Dino Rossi. Rossi is up one in the latest poll and the race is a dead heat. However, I feel that the excitement of the Republican voter will propel him over the top, as it will in many races.
The fifth pickup will come from, surprisingly, West Virginia. Here Joe Manchin, a popular governor following in the footsteps of Harry Byrd, seemed a shoe-in to win. But, like in many other states, the people just plain don't want Obama to have a rubber stamp in Congress. Whether national Democrats will admit it or not, this election is all about a referendum on Barack Obama's policies, and West Virginia will be another casualty for the party.
So, I feel that the Republicans will take all five RCP "toss-ups". It looks like the Republicans will take two races that used to be rated toss-ups but moved into the "lean Republican" column some time ago. These two states are Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey leads by considerable margins in every recent poll over Joe "the White House offered me a job" Sestak. He will take this Senate seat. In Wisconsin, long time senator Russ Feingold finds himself down in every poll, and down twelve in the most recent. It seems that even the power of long term incumbency can't stop this wave.
With Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the Republican pick-ups total seven. Three to go for Senate control. Enter Arkansas, Indiana, and North Dakota. Arkansas and North Dakota are both rated "safe" Republican in the RCP averages. In Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln, who recently polled the lowest approval rating for a sitting senator, is on her way to losing to John Boozman, trailing in the polls by anywhere from fourteen to twenty-seven points. In North Dakota, the seat of retiring senator Byron Dorgan is up for grabs, and the Republican John Hoeven leads Democrat Tracy Potter by upwards of forty points. Indiana's currently Democratic seat will become Republican thanks to Dan Coats and his decision to come out of retirement. He leads by double digits in every recent poll.
So, there are ten races the Democrats will lose in less than one month. Could there be more? In New York, Kirsten Gillibrand is only up by one in the latest poll. This could be an outlier. We'll see. Also, I want to see the polling in Connecticut which will take into account the debate between McMahon and Blumenthal, so it will be interesting to look in a couple of days. Right now, Blumenthal leads by anywhere from three to twelve points. Lastly, could something be happening in California. After Barbara "call me Senator" Boxer ran a slew of commercials, it looked as if she was starting to pull away. However, Carly Fiorina ran a few commercials of her own, and apparently did pretty well in their debate. The last three polls show Boxer leading by four, four, and three points, all close to statistical ties. Could the momentum be shifting the other way? This one will be fun to watch.
So there you have it--why I think the Republican tsunami of 2010 will sweep away the Democrat party and remove them from power. They will have only themselves to blame, along with the wrong headed policies they foisted on the American people.
